An Empirical Study on The Linkage Between Monetary Policy, Real Estate Investment, and Real Estate Price

Abstract

China's 14th Five-Year Plan clearly put forward the "no speculation on housing" to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. In this context, this paper uses monthly data on monetary policy, real estate investment, and real estate prices from 2012 to 2019 as samples, and uses a VAR model to explore the linkage between the three. The study found that: (1) Loose monetary policy will bring positive impact effects on both real estate investment and prices, and real estate prices are more sensitive to changes in monetary policy. (2) The increase in real estate investment will first have a positive impact effect on real estate prices, but it will become a negative effect after a period of time. (3) The increase in the real estate price will bring a positive impact effect on the money supply and cause an increase in the money supply. The findings are helpful to clarify the mutual influence between the three variables, grasp the law of economic activities, and provide references and suggestions for policymakers to effectively regulate the real estate market and the public investors to rationally participate in real estate investment.