The Impact of Sino-US Trade Frictions on US Dollar Hegemony
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54691/8hkpgh80Keywords:
Sino-US Trade Frictions; US Dollar Hegemony; De-dollarization; Mediating Effect; Stage Heterogeneity.Abstract
Since 2018, Sino-US trade frictions have escalated into a four-dimensional composite conflict encompassing "tariffs-finance-industrial chain-currency", profoundly impacting the global monetary system. This paper constructs a Dollar Hegemony Index (DHI) and a Sino-US Trade Friction Index (TMFI). Based on quarterly panel data of the world's top 30 economies from 2018Q1 to 2024Q4, we examine their impacts and transmission mechanisms. The study finds that Sino-US trade frictions significantly weaken US dollar hegemony, with prominent stage heterogeneity. De-dollarization in emerging markets plays a mediating role, accounting for approximately 32.7%. The conclusions binary dichotomy, revealing the characteristic of US dollar hegemony as "superficially stable yet fundamentally weakening", and providing empirical support for RMB internationalization and risk risk mitigation.
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