Demand Thresholds, Cost Boundaries, and Sustainable Operating Mechanisms for Scalable Low-Altitude Logistics: A Scenario-Based Analysis of County-Level Urban-Rural Delivery

Abstract

Whether low-altitude delivery can move from pilot operation to routine service depends less on flight capability itself than on the volume and spatial pattern of demand that must support it. This paper examines that issue through a simple cost-boundary model for county-level urban-rural delivery. The model compares road-only service with an air-ground hybrid and derives two break-even quantities: the daily demand required at a given service radius,q^*(d), and the minimum service radius required at a given demand level, d^*(q). Three operating configurations are considered to show how fixed-cost sharing, utilization, and operating availability move the boundary. A 50,000-draw uncertainty experiment is then used to test whether the main conclusions survive plausible variation in the input assumptions. Under the baseline setting, the break-even radius falls from 29.0 km at 30 parcels/day to 12.5 km at 100 parcels/day and 8.9 km at 200 parcels/day. At a radius of 20 km, the demand threshold is 152.2 parcels/day in the conservative case, 48.5 in the baseline case, and 24.5 in the collaborative case. Across the stipulated uncertainty draws, the hybrid is less costly in 80.5% of cases. Service distance and aggregated demand show the strongest rank associations with the cost difference. The results suggest that low-altitude logistics should be screened by corridor and demand cluster rather than by administrative area alone. They also indicate that demand pooling and shared infrastructure may matter as much as aircraft performance in determining whether a service can be sustained. All numerical inputs are scenario assumptions informed by published studies rather than proprietary operating records.