Prediction of Suitable Cultivated Land in China amid the Northward Shift of Precipitation

Xinting Chen

doi:10.54691/wgbf9a61

Authors

Xinting Chen College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54691/wgbf9a61

Keywords:

Northward Precipitation Shift; Suitable Cultivated Land Prediction; Geographically Weighted Regression; SSP-RCP Scenarios.

Abstract

This research develops an evaluation indicator system for cultivated land suitability that integrates climate, soil and topography, including seven indicators: annual precipitation, soil clay content, soil nitrogen content, soil organic matter content, soil pH, slope and slope aspect. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is used to analyze spatial heterogeneity of each driving factor. This study also adopts the SSP-RCP multi-scenario framework (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5) to predict the spatial pattern of suitable cultivated land in China from 2030 to 2100 under different climate pathways. Results show that the existing suitable cultivated land follows a pattern of dense distribution in eastern China and sparse distribution in western China. Highly suitable farmland clusters in three core zones: the Northeast Plain, North China Plain and Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain. Precipitation serves as the dominant driving factor, with the standardized regression coefficient of annual precipitation reaching 0.135. Variations of suitable cultivated land differ greatly across scenarios. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the total area of suitable cultivated land will drop by roughly 84,000 square kilometers by 2100 relative to 2023. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the total area will rise by about 126,000 square kilometers. Newly developed suitable cultivated land mainly locates on the northern margin of the Northeast Plain, eastern Inner Mongolia Plateau and northern Loess Plateau, with features of northward expansion, westward extension and contiguous distribution. The prediction model built in this research offers scientific support for optimizing cultivated land resource allocation and formulating agricultural adaptation policies amid climate change.

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