Analysis of Global Warming and its Influencing Factors

Abstract

In recent years, the earth is burning, whether global warming and its influencing factors, based on time series and gray prediction model, put forward the hypothesis and conclusion, provide the data of various factors, to evaluate the past temperature level, to predict the future global temperature level and its trend and analyze the influencing factors. For problem 1, first, based on the analysis of the global average air temperature data from March 2012-February 2022 and March 2022-October 2022, it is unscientific that the global temperature rise in March 2022 led to a larger rise than in the past 10 years. Second, the ARIMA model and the gray prediction model are used to describe the past global temperature levels and predict the future global temperature levels, respectively. The ARIMA model and the grey prediction model show that the global average annual temperature change has been stable in the past, while the prediction that the average temperature of 20.00°C in 2050 or 2100 is inaccurate. The grey prediction model shows that the global temperature levels will continue to rise in the future, and shows that the average temperature in 2,289 observations is expected to reach 20.00°C. According to the forecast, the global average temperature will not, as long as natural resources are properly used, reach 20.00°C. For problem 2, We first divide the Earth into the southern and northern hemisphere, and second into tropical and southern temperate and northern temperate zones. The linear relationship between global average temperature and the two conditions is discussed separately. According to the results, it significantly shows a strong correlation between the global average temperature and time. If unchecked, the global average temperature will grow over time. Second, using the principal component analysis method shows that may affect the global average temperature in the Middle East energy consumption, global hydropower consumption, world oil consumption, global niobium minerals, the world gas proven reserves, global crude oil production, global cadmium production, and to the results are tested, concluded that the principal component analysis method to influence the main indicators of the global average temperature method is more accurate. Therefore, the suggestions for global temperature change are made: to strive to reduce methane emissions; to further strengthen the strategic deployment and practical actions for energy revolution and low-carbon development, while increasing the intensity of energy low-carbon transformation. For problem 3, We propose the feasibility of this model evaluation and prediction results on slowing down or curbing global warming trends. One is direct emissions reduction, with countries signing contracts to force their carbon emissions and unite against global warming. Reduce heat emissions should be put on everyone's daily living habits, with a limited use of daily necessities, to achieve limited production, limited processing, so as to curb industrial flooding, reduce heat emissions. Second, the indirect emission reduction. With the development of industry, carbon dioxide emissions are constantly increasing, leading to a series of problems such as global warming and sea level rise. Afforestation can absorb the carbon dioxide contained in the atmosphere and reduce the greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere. Therefore, we must realize the importance of afforestation, take appropriate measures to improve the effect of afforestation, and better alleviate global warming.