Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Coupling Coordination between Basic Old-age Insurance and Economic Development in China

Abstract

Based on coupling coordination degree model, this paper calculates the coupling coordination between basic old-age insurance and Economic development in 30 provinces (municipalities and districts) in China from 1997 to 2017 (excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), and analyzes its influencing factors using the spatial Durbin model. Firstly, the coupling coordination between basic old-age insurance and Economic development is on the rise from the stage of reluctant coordination to the stage of primary coordination. However, the regional differences continue to expand, and the spatial subsidence pattern is "high on both sides, low in the middle". Secondly, the spatial correlation of coupling coordination degree is significant, but the degree of spatial agglomeration is weakening, and the pattern changes from "east-west symmetry" to "northeast dominated" unipolar pattern. Thirdly, the coupling coordination between basic old-age insurance and Economic development has obvious spatial positive spillover effect. Fund balance, payment base, fiscal decentralization and highly educated talents can significantly promote the coordinated development of pension insurance and economic growth, but increasing the contribution rate will worsen the relationship between the two.