Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Fertility in China

Yu Zhang

doi:10.54691/bz0xj455

Authors

Yu Zhang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54691/bz0xj455

Keywords:

Age-specific fertility rate; Hadwiger model; Gamma model; Model I; Model II; Adjusted Error Model.

Abstract

Fertility is one of the key indicators in demographic research. In recent years, fertility in China has continued to decline, and population change has attracted widespread attention. This paper applies five models—the Hadwiger model, the Gamma model, Model I and Model II proposed by Peristera and Kostaki, and the Adjusted Error Model—to fit national age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) data for China in 2000, 2010, and 2020. The fitting performance of these models is compared in order to identify the models most suitable for China’s fertility pattern and to provide a scientific basis for fertility-related policy formulation and population regulation. The results show that the Gamma model and Model I yield the smallest residual sum of squares and provide the best fit, indicating that they are well suited to China’s fertility pattern.

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