Spatial Optimization of Regional Inclusive Preschool Education Resources in the Context of Low Fertility Rate System Dynamics Research

Abstract

Against the background of the increasing trend of low fertility rate, the supply and demand structure of regional preschool education resources has undergone profound changes, and the structural imbalance of "excess places and scarcity of high-quality places" coexisting with "difficult to enroll in kindergartens and vacant kindergartens" occurring in some regions. Based on the dynamic feedback characteristics of the education system and the decision-making mechanism of multiple actors, the study constructs a simulation model combining system dynamics and multi-actor modeling, and comprehensively simulates the interactive process of "births-supply-demand-finance-behavior-policy" in order to explore the spatial optimization path of the regional inclusive pre-school education resources. The results show that under different policy scenarios, the key indicators of the system show significant differences; especially under the path of financial subsidy enhancement and quality orientation, the efficiency of resource allocation and the equity of education are significantly improved. Further simulations show that policy tools such as the dynamic regulation mechanism, regional differentiation strategy and parental guidance in choosing schools are effective in alleviating structural conflicts. The results of this study suggest that, in the face of the risk of resource mismatch brought about by demographic changes, it is necessary to achieve the prospective optimal allocation of inclusive education resources through system modeling and feedback regulation.