Exploring Energy Interdependence: An Analysis of Russia's Energy Leverage on Germany in the Ukraine Crisis

Abstract

It was believed that closed Europe-Russia energy cooperation would be a bridge to incorporate Russia into the pan-Europe security architecture, while it was at the same time concerned to be Russia’s leverage and wedge to exert influences and to divide Europe. The latter concern prevailed amidst the Ukraine Crisis and the deterioration of Europe-Russia relation. The Ukraine Crisis will be used as a case study to test both the belief and the concerns, for if energy cooperation and reliance, or strategic natural resources reliance more broadly, has influences on foreign policy formulations, particularly in contexts of deteriorating bilateral relations. The research question is: Does Germany-Russia energy cooperation influences Germany’s foreign policies change since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict? And how? The research examines the dynamics of Germany-Russia energy cooperation and Germany’s foreign policies in the Ukraine Crisis, for if its closed energy ties with Russia led to its political concession during the Russia-Ukraine War. The research indicates a strong correlation between high energy dependence and conservative foreign policy stances before core interests were threatened. This correlation weakens but persists after the threatening of core interests. The findings verify the role of energy reliance or strategic resources reliance in foreign policy formulations, and have potentials to be applied to great power competitions, such as US-China relation, which is also strategically interdependent.