Applying Punctuated-Equilibrium Theory to Analyze the Evolving Process of Socioeconomic Policies in Post-war Taiwan

Abstract

This research paper investigates the evolving socioeconomic policies in post-war Taiwan. To better conceptualize and comprehend the dynamics of policy fluctuations and stability, this paper adopts the Punctuated-Equilibrium Model (PEM), which is a model to explain the process of policy stability and changes, to illustrate key variables in policymaking and make the historical review of Taiwan development more predigested. This study in a historical approach by applying the PEM to analyze the policy shifts in Taiwan is unprecedented, and extend the original theoretical model more applicable in a system with both authoritarian system, democratic system and a transition from underdeveloped economy to a modernized economy as the case of Taiwan have demonstrated. Both domestic empirical evidence and comparative researches will be applied to embed the theoretical model into the case. And the results showed that Taiwan’s socioeconomic policy development can be categorized into five different stages in accordance with the PEM, namely Equilibrium of Authoritarian Stability from 1950-1958, First Punctuation from 1958-1965, Equilibrium of Active Statism from 1965-1986, Second Punctuation from 1986-2000, and Equilibrium of Democratic Stability since 2000. In the first punctuation, the freeze of US aid, the incapacity of import substitution strategy and the need for further economic development reframed the government’s policy to be more active in advancing socioeconomic development. In the second punctuation, the imbalance between economic and social development, with the failed political agenda which encouraged the rise of Taiwanese nationalism, produced negative feedback to the policy framing. The policy venues consequently shifted from the government to the opposing groups and public arenas, which eventuated the liberalization and democratization.