Research on Ordering and Transportation Strategy of Raw Materials for Manufacturing Companies Based on Time Series Model and Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation

Abstract

A company needs to develop a series of ordering and forwarding strategies to maximize its profitability when it purchases three raw materials from a supplier for the production of decorative building panels, which are delivered to its warehouse by a forwarder. In this paper, we analyze the past cooperation data between the company and its suppliers and forwarders to build a mathematical model and find the optimal solution. The problem is based on quantitative analysis, so it can largely avoid unnecessary expenses caused by subjective and empirical judgments of enterprise managers, and has strong practical significance. In this paper, the 50 most important suppliers selected by considering the past supply characteristics of 402 suppliers are used as the base data. To determine the minimum number of suppliers required. Integrating factors such as raw material cost and transportation loss rate, the weekly ordering and transshipment plan for the next six months will be developed based on the selected suppliers. Based on this, we introduce the goal of purchasing as much as possible A and as little as possible C, develop a new ordering and forwarding program, and conduct a predictive analysis of the program's implementation effects.