An Empirical Study on the Impact of Fed Rate Hikes: Perspective from Fama-French Three-Factor Model

Abstract

The Fed’s interest rate hike is currently a hot issue of social concern. Some researchers believe that the Fed's rate hike this time is an "urgent cycle" rather than a "long-term cycle". However, there is still no unified explanation for the formation mechanism and scope of influence behind it. Therefore, this paper collects the return data of the US stock industry and conducts a Fama-French three-factor regression analysis. Research shows that the short-term negative impact of the U.S. stock market in the context of the Fed raising interest rates is not conducive to the development of the U.S. stock market, meanwhile, the energy industry benefits from the hike on the long term. The fed rate hike will have a negative impact on the rest of the industry in the short term, with the durable goods sector and business equipment sector having the most severe impact, and the utility sector and non-durable goods sector having a relatively small negative impact.