Analysis on Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Ecological Carrying Capacity in Greater Bay Area Around Hangzhou Bay

Abstract

The Great Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay is the intersection of multiple national strategies the coastal open zone, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the Belt and Road Initiative. Ecological carrying capacity is the maximum capacity of an ecosystem to bear human activities on the premise of maintaining its normal operation, which can provide a reference for judging the degree of regional sustainable development and future planning and construction. In this study, the evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity was constructed based on the PSR model. The spatio-temporal evolution of ecological carrying capacity in the Great Bay Area around Hangzhou from 2006 to 2019 was analyzed using the TOPSIS model, exponential smoothing method and GIS spatial analysis method. The results show that the pressure is carrying capacity generally decreases, and it is predicted to decrease from 2020 to 2022. the state bearing capacity tends to be ideal, and the development prospect is good; response bearing capacity and comprehensive bearing capacity are highly overlapped, reaching the minimum and maximum in 2012 and 2016, respectively; the ecological carrying capacity of cities in the northwest of Hangzhou and Shanghai is in good condition. After the unified planning, the ecological carrying capacity of Jiaxing and other cities has been significantly improved, and the ecological carrying capacity of cities in the bay area is more inclined to balanced development. Combined with the correlation analysis, it is concluded that the proportion of fixed assets investment in the construction of landscaping public facilities in GDP is the key factor restricting the comprehensive carrying capacity. The research results are of great significance to formulating policies for sustainable socio-economic development in the Bay Area.