Research on the Effect of Policy on Real Daily Wages in the UK from 1260 to 1994 Based on Multiple Models

Abstract

Between 1900 and 1994, daily wages in the UK changed dramatically, therefore, in order to explore how the UK policies had significant impacts on daily wages, the main objective of this research is to identify the changes in UK daily wages before and after the implementation of the policies, and to forecast the future, compare simulative models and select the most appropriate forecasting model. The methodology of this study was to collect data on daily wages in the UK from 1900 to 1994, then forecasting the data through simple exponential smoothing, ARIMA model, ETS function. After predicting the daily wages in the given time period, make comparisons between the real-time statistics and the results produced by the simulative methods. The outcome of this research is the daily wages in the UK has been affected certainly by the policies, through comparing the values conducted by each model. All three models predicted the daily wages should be decreasing slightly in 1994, only fewer than 40 GBP, however, the real statistics has shown the significant increase in 1994. Therefore, the effects brought by the policies are detrimental and significant.