The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Motor Vehicle Market under the Russia-Ukraine conflict
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v38i.3894Keywords:
Russia-Ukraine Conflict; WTI Crude Oil; Electric Vehicle; ARMA-GARCH; VAR model.Abstract
On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin dispatched Russian troops to invade the territory of Ukraine on the grounds of "demilitarization and de-Nazification." The conflict officially turned into a full-scale war from that day and quickly developed in Europe since World War II. the most significant war ever. After the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, related industries also suffered from price fluctuations, especially crude oil. The crazy rise in crude oil prices has also changed people's car-using habits, which has considerably impacted electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles. NIO was selected as the representative of electric vehicles, and Honda is the representative of fuel vehicles. This paper intercepts their stock data from the months before and after the Russia-Ukraine conflict and uses the VAR model and ARMA-GARCH model to analyze the impact of WTI crude oil price rises caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles.
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