The Prediction of the Guangzhou Housing Market Based on the ARIMA Model

Abstract

Since the increasing trend of the Guangzhou housing price stopped after the Covid-19 epidemic in early 2020, investors and citizens are hesitant about purchasing, keeping, or selling their real estate in Guangzhou. This paper intends to utilize the ARIMA model to forecast the Guangzhou real estate market from September 2022 to August 2023 based on the Guangzhou housing price data from the last 10 years, and compare the yearly profits of purchasing houses in Guangzhou and the profits of storing money in the Bank of China for a year. The result is counter-intuitive that purchasing houses in Guangzhou is much more profitable than storing cash in the Bank of China since the Guangzhou housing market is experiencing a trough after the Covid-19 epidemic, which created a great potential for its future recovery. To sum up, this paper suggests local citizens and investors increase the property proportion of real estate in Guangzhou in 2023 due to its upcoming profit.