Research on the impact of the US subprime crisis on Chinese real estate-with empirical analysis based on GARCH (1,1) model

Yi Han; Jiajun Li; Wenyang Li; Xiaowen Zhang

doi:10.54691/bcpbm.v49i.5475

Authors

Yi Han
Jiajun Li
Wenyang Li
Xiaowen Zhang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v49i.5475

Keywords:

US subprime mortgage crisis; Chinese real estate market; impact mechanism; GARCH model.

Abstract

The US subprime mortgage crisis is a major crisis in the global financial market in recent years, its scope far beyond the United States, China as the world's second largest economy real estate market has a profound impact. Based on the analysis of Shenwan real estate industry index and the development characteristics of Chinese real estate market, this paper discusses the impact mechanism and consequences of the crisis on Chinese real estate market, and uses GRACH(1,1) model for empirical analysis and test. Through analysis, it is found that the occurrence of subprime crisis has a significant negative impact on Chinese real estate industry, which inhibits the development of Chinese real estate industry to a certain extent. At the same time, Chinese real estate sector is sensitive to market fluctuations. Finally, some relevant policy suggestions are put forward.

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