Risk Identification and Assessment of PPP Forestry Projects in China Using a Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v18i.573Keywords:
Risk Identification, Risk Assessment, PPP, Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation ApproachAbstract
At present, the Chinese government is vigorously promoting the use of PPP mode to attract social capital and financial capital into the field of forestry, including ecological construction, protection and utilization, which is of great significance for promoting the construction of ecological civilization and the development of both the economy and the society. Because the financing, organization, implementation and environmental factors of PPP forestry projects are relatively complicated, there are certain risks for both the government and social capital. In order to evaluate the risks of China's forestry projects for the government and social capital, 43 risk factors were identified and divided into 4 groups based on Delphi method and questionnaire survey. 23 key risk factors were selected according to the standardized values. Then, the probability of occurrence (PO), impact size (IS) and overall risk level (ORL) of each key factor were determined by fuzzy synthetic evaluation(FSE) method, and each KRF, KRG and overall risk level (ORL) were calculated. Based on the results, "Government Decision Risk" in KRF was the most critical risk factor, and KRG "Financial Risk" was the most critical risk factor group. Overall, fuzzy comprehensive results showed that the ORL of China's forestry PPP project is relatively high. According to the analysis results, countermeasures were put forward. The research results could provide reference for all participants in PPP forestry projects to make decisions, and formulate a comprehensive risk management plan to use limited resources. In addition, this study could expand professional knowledge and enrich relevant results.
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