Dynamic Evolution and Trend Prediction of the Development Level of China's Agricultural and Rural Modernization

Authors

  • Wenjie Qian

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54691/v5ga7g52

Keywords:

Agricultural and Rural Modernization; Dynamic Evolution; Regional Differences; Evolutionary Trends.

Abstract

Based on the three dimensions of agricultural, rural and farmers' modernization, the development level of agricultural and rural modernization of 30 provinces (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in China is measured from 2012 to 2021, and on this basis, the regional differences and dynamic evolution of the development level of agricultural and rural modernization in China are examined using Dagum's Gini Coefficient Decomposition, Kernel Density Estimation, and the Lan Index. The results show that the differences in the development level of agricultural and rural modernization in each region from 2012 to 2021 show a trend of gradual reduction, and there is a phenomenon of convergence. To a certain extent, it indicates that inter-regional differences are the key factors leading to the overall differences. According to the validation of kernel density estimation, the development level of China's agricultural and rural modernization basically remains stable from 2012 to 2021. The Moran index test can be obtained that the development level of China's agricultural and rural modernization shows a spatial positive correlation in geographic distance, and there is a spatial clustering phenomenon.

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References

Qin Cheng, Wang Bao, Chen Dian et al. Evaluation of the development level of agricultural and rural modernization in China[J]. China Agricultural Resources and Zoning,2022,43(04):173-182.

Li Gang,Li Shuangyuan. Research on the development level of agricultural and rural modernization in Qinghai Province[J]. Research on Agricultural Modernization,2020,41(01):24-33.

LIU Lu, XIN Ling, ZHU Tiehui. Research on spatial and temporal characteristics and obstacle factors of China's agricultural and rural modernization level[J]. China Agricultural Resources and Zoning,2023,44(06):135-147.

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Published

2024-07-24

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Qian, W. (2024). Dynamic Evolution and Trend Prediction of the Development Level of China’s Agricultural and Rural Modernization. Frontiers in Sustainable Development, 4(7), 55-63. https://doi.org/10.54691/v5ga7g52