Analysis of Games Industry during COVID-19 Based on Fama-French Five-factor Model

Abstract

Since the 1960s, asset pricing model has become the core research field of modern finance. It has been widely used in financial market, consumption and investment decision-making, monetary policy and even macroeconomic estimation and prediction. Scholars have done a lot of research on the theory and application of CAPM model, and achieved dramatic results. With the improvement of the stock market, CAPM model has gradually lost its convincing explanatory power when describing the relationship between stock return rate and risk. In 1992, Fama and French proposed a three-factor model to enhance the explanatory power of CAPM, and proposed that factors such as the total market value of a company and the book-to-market ratio could better explain the difference of stock returns on the cross section. In 2013, Fama and French improved the original three-factor model by adding profitability factor and investment mode factor to the three-factor model, and proposed a five-factor model, so as to better explain the difference in cross-sectional returns of stocks. COVID-19 caused a big black swan event and the impact is very dramatic that the economy has a huge impact. Therefore, this paper takes the game and entertainment industry as an example. Based on the Fama-french five-factor model and multiple linear regression, the changes of factor coefficients before and after the epidemic are analyzed, and some investment suggestions are given for reference. It is found that because of the emergence and outbreak of COVID-19 the game industry is more sensitive to the fluctuations of the market economy, and small businesses with a high book-to-market ratio are worth investing in.