Statistical Inference of Spatial Econometric Models Based on Likelihood Functions

Abstract

This paper is devoted to studying the probabilistic and statistical properties of maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in spatially mixed autoregressive models. When the response variable in the mixed autoregressive model obeys a continuous distribution, this paper verifies the monotonicity of the likelihood function of the mixed autoregressive model with respect to the autoregressive parameter P, which proves the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimation of the autoregressive parameter. The results show that when the condition n > rank(x+1) is satisfied, the quasi-likelihood function of the mixed autoregressive model has a unique maximum value with probability 1 in the parameter space; when n > rank(x+1) and the regression coefficient When the matrix column is full rank, the maximum likelihood estimates of all parameters in the spatial mixed autoregressive model exist with probability 1 and are unique in the parameter space. In order to detect the strong influence points and abnormal points in the spatial mixed autoregressive model, this paper uses the first derivative method in the local influence analysis to obtain the statistics of the strong influence points and abnormal points in the spatial mixed autoregressive model in the form of variance perturbation. Simulation studies have shown that the first derivative of the maximum likelihood estimate of variance in the spatial mixed autoregressive model should be chosen to obtain the test statistic, which can effectively avoid the mearing and masking effects that often occur and are difficult to handle in local influence analysis. . As application and verification, this paper analyzes a real data to show that the conclusions obtained in this paper are reliable and practical.