Analysis of Electronic Industry Stock Price Valuation Based on HP-ARMA Method——Take 9,105 Samples from 15 Enterprises
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v28i.2219Keywords:
Stock Prediction; Electronics Industry; HP Filter; ARMA Model.Abstract
The electronics industry plays an increasingly important role in GDP, and it is of great significance to study the valuation of the stock price of the electronics industry. In the process of reading the literature, the author found the possible deficiencies in the related fields: (1) The existing studies lack timeliness and are of little reference significance. (2)There is less research on stock price valuations in the electronics industry. After summing up the previous theoretical results, in the electronics industry sub-plate: semiconductor, consumer electronics, PCB, optical optoelectronics and security take 3 leading stocks, the data of 607 trading days of these 15 stocks from 2020 to July 6,2022 are selected. Based on the ARMA model, the long-term trend of stock price separated by HP Filter is used to predict and analyze the future stock price. According to the overall empirical results, this paper draws the following conclusions. (1) The semiconductor sector is more dependent on imports, and the stock price volatility is higher; (2) The stock price of companies with smaller assets is less correlated with the number of trading days; (3) The overall stock price of the electronics industry basically shows a steady upward trend, with huge growth potential.
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