Yield and Volatility of Air Transport Industry under Rapidly Changes in Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from Time-series Model

Abstract

The tense atmosphere of energy supply in the international market is gradually strengthened, and with the continuous development of the conflict, the Western countries continue to strengthen the sanctions, which makes it difficult to eliminate the impact of oil in a short time. Based on WTI crude oil price, Brent crude oil price, and the stock price closing price of air transport industry, this paper establishes VAR model and ARMA-GARCH model through empirical analysis to analyze the impact of the Russian-Ukraine conflict and oil price changes on air transport industry. The empirical results show that the increase of WTI crude oil price has a significant negative impact on the return rate of air transport industry, Brent crude oil price has no similar effect. Further research shows that the change of crude oil price has a significant positive impact on the volatility of air transport industry. This paper provides evidence for the economic results caused by changes in oil prices.