Study on the Volatility Relationship between the Price of China's Live-hogs Industrial Chain and CPI

Xuanmin  Zhang

doi:10.54691/bcpbm.v13i.83

Authors

Xuanmin Zhang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v13i.83

Keywords:

Live Hogs Chain; Pork Prices; CPI; SVAR Model

Abstract

This paper uses the SAVR model to study the dynamic relationship between monthly corn prices, live hog prices, pork prices, and CPI volatility from January 2011 to August 2021. It is found that: 1. live-hog prices is the cause of pork price fluctuation, and live hogs and pork prices is the cause of CPI change. 2. live hog prices has short-term positive brunt on CPI, and pork prices has short-term positive and negative impact on CPI. 3. pork prices change is mainly caused by live hog price and its own change, and CPI change is mainly caused by spontaneous factors, live hog prices and pork prices change. Based on the above research, relevant policy recommendations to smooth out the fluctuation of pork prices are proposed.

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