Valuation Analysis of Stock Prices in Pharmaceutical Industry Based on HP-ARIMA Method--Taking a sample of 8721 from 12 companies as an example
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v33i.2757Keywords:
Stock Valuation, Daily Opening Price of Stocks, Pharmaceutical Industry, HP Filtering, ARIMA model.Abstract
Share price valuation can help investors avoid risks. Therefore, this paper selects 12 daily opening prices of stocks to study stock price volatility and make predictions. In this paper, the regression analysis was first conducted using the HP-ARIMA method, which followed by OLS model and Tobit model robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis was then carried out using the ARIMA model, which yielded the following results: (1) The midstream industry economy has a much less radical effect on social development than the upstream and downstream. (2) The long-term trend of the daily opening price of stocks of upstream companies is more volatile, indicating a higher investment risk. The above prediction results are also used to propose countermeasures.
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